The Taliban’s march to the north cannot be avoided, but it must be delayed
A delegation of the political office of the radical Taliban movement (recognized as a terrorist organization and banned in Russia) has arrived in Moscow for negotiations. This was announced by the official representative of the Qatari political office of the movement, Suheil Shaheen. According to him, the main purpose of the visit is to discuss the situation in the north of Afghanistan.
The member of the delegation noted that the seizure of Afghanistan by military means is not the policy of the Taliban. “We have once again confirmed our commitment to a political solution here in Moscow,” Suheil Shaheen said.
MK asked Roman Silantyev, an expert, a Russian religious scholar, professor of the Department of World Culture at Moscow State Linguistic University, to answer the question whether the agreement reached during the visit can be a guarantor of the security of the Central Asian states bordering Afghanistan, including Russia’s military ally in the CSTO – Tajikistan.
– Any state in such cases proceeds primarily from its own benefit, – the expert explained, – and Russia is no exception. If she believes that it is possible to cooperate with the Taliban movement against more dangerous terrorists, this is his right. In Afghanistan, there is a choice between ISIS (recognized as a terrorist organization and banned in Russia. – “MK”) and this radical movement. There are no other forces left there. In such a situation, the choice is obvious. Although the Taliban is a terrorist organization, it is less dangerous than ISIS.
– How much can we believe the statement of the representative of the Qatari political office of the movement that they are not going to seize Afghanistan by military means and are trying to find a civilized solution to the issue?
– You know, there are cases of changes in the policy of some structures. Everyone remembers the sect of Assassins in Islam, who cut their opponents so that they even got into the folklore of many peoples. And now it is quite peaceful, not even a sect, but a denomination of Self-Elites. Chocolate is produced, universities are opening. We once had the Bolsheviks as a banned organization, and then they began to sit down at the same table with them, to negotiate. So the” Taliban ” can theoretically change. This, of course, may not happen,but then there are methods of influencing such organizations. If we raise the question of “ISIL” or “Taliban”, then the first one is dangerous because it has a wider coverage of the territory. The Taliban can go to Central Asia for the territory of Afghanistan, and their aggression is directed at certain peoples. Igilovtsy is a completely international terrorist organization, and sets for itself a plan to capture the whole world.
– Is there a real threat from the Taliban for the countries bordering Afghanistan?
– Yes, absolutely. And if there is a question of somehow delaying the war and the invasion of the Taliban in time, then measures should be taken. This is a reasonable policy. Personally, I assume that sooner or later there will still be an invasion. Or “ISIS” or “Taliban”. It is very difficult to agree on something with organizations such as the Taliban, and it is even harder to comply with these agreements. It is necessary to clearly understand who you are dealing with, and do not build any illusions about this. Although, of course, there are situations when it is profitable for them to comply with the agreement themselves.
– Will Russia be forced to intervene if an invasion of the territory of its allies in Central Asia does occur?
– Firstly, we have a Collective Security Treaty Organization-the CSTO. And secondly, Russia will need to take part, because it is easier to defend there, on the border with Afghanistan, than, for example, on the border of Russia with Kazakhstan, which is much longer and much less protected. Passes in the mountains and in a desert area are much easier to cover. If you do not fight there, there will come a time when you will have to fight in the Volga region.
In fact, this is not the first attempt to talk to the Taliban. There is absolutely no intrigue here. I don’t see any strange turns of diplomacy, it is quite predictable in this direction. Since such a situation has developed, we must try to delay the unpleasant outcome as much as possible, which I must admit is quite likely.
– It turns out that even if an agreement is reached, it is impossible to relax?
– Of course. Everything can change at any moment, so we need to play on contradictions. We need to strengthen our defense, accumulate strength and properly motivate our allies from Central Asia, who, of course, will be the first to suffer. And they will suffer significantly, with the prospect of losing a large number of the population and perhaps even part of the statehood. It may, of course, happen that the Taliban will get stuck in the war with ISIS for decades and everyone will exhale calmly. And it may happen that in a couple of years they will storm Dushanbe. It depends on a lot of factors that are impossible to predict now.