The temptation of Volodin: will Putin fall into a political trap

Russia should have a life after GDP

Putin “should remain president as long as possible” – having made such a statement, the chairman of the State Duma of the Russian Federation Vyacheslav Volodin said the pure truth. The pure truth, from the point of view of the Russian political elite. One of the standard accusations of Volodin’s enemies against him is the allegations that this political heavyweight has hidden presidential ambitions. Calls for GDP not to think aboutleaving his watch in the Kremlin is one of the ways to refute such accusations, which are extremely dangerous in Russian conditions. But having known Volodin for many years, I am convinced that considerations of political self-defense are secondary in this case. The most important thing is exactly what the speaker openly said: Putin should stay at the helm of the Russian political ship for as long as possible.

Photo: kremlin.ru

In a recent interview with my esteemed colleague from Kommersant, Elena Chernenko, the director of the Carnegie Moscow Center, Dmitry Trenin, issued one very precise and important formulation: “We have a relatively stable political regime, but its stability depends crucially on the ability of the first person to legitimize the political and economic system in the eyes of the majority of the population and at the same time be an indisputable arbiter in intra-elite disputes. This ability, however, is not transferred along with the post of president.” This last phrase of Trenin — “it is not passed along with the post of president” – contains all the salt.

Why do you think Ukraine is diligently stalling for time and is not really doing anything to break the deadlock of the crisis in the Donbass? Because Kiev politicians are “sitting out Putin”. In the Ukrainian elite, they act within the following logic: we will not crush the current President of the Russian Federation and we will not outplay him. But Putin is not eternal. Sooner or later, he will leave, and then Russia may well slide into turmoil. Of course, she may not slide into it. But, given the entire previous Russian history, the chances of a turmoil are very high. Therefore, we will sit and wait by the sea for the weather — or, to be more precise, for a shift change in the Kremlin.

The idea “there may well be a new turmoil after Putin” is firmly embedded in the subcortex of the Russian elite. And therefore, through Volodin’s mouth, she gives out her political recipe: “We all need to do everything so that he remains our president for as long as possible. Under him, Russia will become even stronger, people will live better, without shocks and wars. And even if there are problems, as now with sanctions, we will pass them much less painfully than in previous periods of our history.”

I believe, Vyacheslav Viktorovich, I definitely believe-but at the same time I am perplexed. A little further on, you said about Putin: “He does a lot for the country, and hardly anyone can be a more effective president than him.” My perplexity connected with these words of the speaker is that, like everyone else, Putin is just a person. Due to the fact that people cannot live forever, GDP will sooner or later leave the post of president. And then what? Will the best years in the history of Russia really be left behind? Isn’t there an even brighter future waiting for us? And does Vladimir Vladimirovich himself really want exactly such a fate for our country?

By asking all these rhetorical questions, I open myself up to accusations of verbal balancing. I’m sorry, Vyacheslav Viktorovich, there is such a thing. As a very experienced political player, you expressed yourself very carefully: “There is no politician stronger than Putin in the world today.” This figurative “today” will end sooner or later, and in the metaphorical “tomorrow” in Russia, politicians who will at least be “equal to GDP”may well appear. But here is the key question of modern Russian politics: when exactly will the desired boundary between the conditional “today and tomorrow”come?

In private conversations in the Kremlin, they say that Putin is not going to be president for life and is only waiting for the moment when the transfer of supreme power will not threaten the stability of the country. Again, I certainly believe it. But will such an ideal moment come in principle? Let’s go back, for example, to 2008. At the time of the transition of presidential powers from Putin to Medvedev in May of that year, the horizon of Russian politics seemed cloudless. But already in August, as a result of Saakashvili’s adventure and the war with Georgia, everything was covered with thunderclouds. A few weeks later, a hurricane begins in the form of a global economic crisis.

We can, of course, say that 2008 was particularly unlucky in terms of shocks. But no one has canceled the law of the falling sandwich. The political situation in the long term always develops according to the principle “we only dream of peace”. Some dangerous challenges and threats are a thing of the past, but they are replaced by new ones — unexpected, unpredictable, but no less dangerous. And what should Russia do — cling to Putin for as long as possible? But this “as long as possible” will also end sometime. And then what? And then Putin will tell us everything. But what exactly is this, as I suspect, even Vyacheslav Volodin himself does not know yet.

Источник www.mk.ru

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