The US predicted the sending of Russian PMCs to the Afghan land
After the withdrawal of the American army from Afghanistan and the capture of Kabul by the Taliban (recognized as a terrorist organization, banned in the Russian Federation), the United States was alarmed by the possible increase in Russian or Chinese influence in Central Asia. This was written by the American magazine The National Interest.
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“One of the main fears of the Taliban is complete international isolation. The support of other states is vital for the Taliban to maintain power in the country they have captured. For this reason, Taliban officials are trying to reach international agreements with China, Iran, Pakistan or Russia as soon as possible,” the article published in the American edition says.
The main interest of Russia, according to the author, is the spread of political and economic influence on the countries of Central Asia. This will not only limit the activities of terrorist groups hostile to Russia, including ISIL (a terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation), but also allow the Kremlin to exert indirect pressure on Beijing and New Delhi. In addition, control over natural resources in Afghanistan will increase Russia’s economic potential and prevent possible competition in the form of supplies of Afghan energy resources by the Taliban to other countries.
Conversely, if the relations between the Taliban Kabul and Beijing are strengthened, China will be able to gain a foothold in Central Asia, which is rich in energy resources, through Afghanistan. This step will significantly limit Russian oil and gas supplies to China and will contribute to the further development of the already powerful Chinese economy.
And while China has declared its readiness to cooperate with a terrorist organization, Russia has not yet recognized the Taliban as the legitimate authority in Afghanistan. However, the United States is not satisfied with not only open support for terrorists, but also a hidden fight against them, because, according to the publication, this will help Russia strengthen its influence in Central Asia, which directly contradicts American interests.
“Russia has stated that it will not officially send its military personnel to fight with the Taliban in Afghanistan: the wound from the last unsuccessful experience still hurts! Instead of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, private military companies may go to Afghanistan, ” the American magazine predicts.
It is noted that although the majority of the Afghan military trained by the United States surrendered immediately after the surrender of Kabul, the north of Afghanistan, populated mainly by Tajiks, declared its readiness to conduct military operations against the Taliban authorities. Apparently, we are talking about the Northern Alliance movement led by Ahmad Masood in Panjshir, who refused to surrender to the Taliban troops besieging this region.
Russia, according to the publication, can at any time declare support for Tajiks or Russians living in this region. A similar case has already occurred once under such a scenario during the armed conflict in South Ossetia in 2008, the publication reminds.
“Since Russia has no common borders with Afghanistan, the Kremlin can use countries that were previously part of the Soviet Union,” the newspaper writes. – First of all, these are the states adjacent to Afghanistan: Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. In Tajikistan alone, Russia has about 6,500 military personnel at the 201st Russian military base, who will remain there until 2042.”
Despite the fact that Afghanistan is several thousand kilometers away from Russia, the Russian military potential in Central Asia causes serious concerns for the United States. But in addition to its own interests, according to the publication, Russia also needs to take into account the economic power of China, as well as the cultural influence of Iran, Pakistan and the Taliban itself.