Minsk will shift part of the sanctions it has been subjected to to Moscow
Belarus is moving away from the multi-vector policy in favor of the Kremlin. First, the Belarusian ambassador to Moscow, Vladimir Semashko, announced that integration with Russia, which many Belarusians oppose, will be completed by January 1, 2022. And then the Belarusian Foreign Ministry recalled its representative to the EU and suspended participation in the Eastern Partnership initiative. Experts are sure that Russia will suffer first of all from such actions of Minsk.
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The Eastern Partnership is a program to strengthen EU relations with Belarus, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine. For example, within the framework of this initiative, Belarusians could receive “Schengen visas” at a lower cost.
The European Union itself reacted critically to Belarus ‘ withdrawal from the agreement. The representative of the EU Foreign Policy Service, Nabila Massrali, noted that this decision demonstrates the disdainful attitude of the Belarusian authorities to the interests of their citizens.
According to economist Yaroslav Romanchuk, against the background of all other events, the exit from the Eastern Partnership can simply not be noticed. “It is already quite obvious that Lukashenka is waging a war with the West. And the Eastern Partnership was already more of a diplomatic project with a complex understanding and goals, ” the expert explained.
At the same time, a message appeared that Minsk is ready to complete integration with Russia. According to Semashko, we are talking about the creation of common markets for energy resources and transport, the unification of tax and customs legislation, as well as the transition to a unified industrial and agricultural policy.
MK could not get an operational comment from the embassy regarding this information. Back in June, Semashko said that two of the 28 “road maps” of integration have not been signed. He did not specify their name, but noted that the most difficult task is the unification of the tax system.
The experts interviewed by MK do not believe that deep integration can take place within the time frame specified by the diplomat. According to Romanchuk, Semashko is not a person who makes decisions in the country. And Lukashenka is ready to “arm people and fight back to the last bullet” not only against the West, but also attempts by any other party to limit him and his power.
“Mishustin and Patrushev are not coming to Belarus to discuss the potato harvest. This is a serious topic, and the adoption of the rules of Russia’s game on this issue will lead to a reduction in the powers of Belarus in favor of Moscow. We are waiting for more than one conflict, a round of negotiations, the tension will not go away. Integration is possible if the Kremlin sets conditions for Lukashenka, which he will not be able to refuse without fatal consequences for him. This is either money or an operation aimed at the safety of him or his family. There is little choice here, ” the expert believes.
Russian economists were no less skeptical about Semashko’s statement. They could not name what benefits Russia will receive from integration with Belarus. “What is happening in Belarus now is outside the civilized world. Under these conditions, Minsk shifts part of the sanctions that it has been subjected to to Russia. Therefore, I suspect that these may be fire-fighting methods that will partially mitigate the consequences for Belarus. But we should not forget that Russia is also under sanctions, and their tightening in this direction would also be wrong, ” says economist Sergey Smirnov.
The same opinion is shared by the director of the HSE Banking Institute Vasily Solodkov. He recalled that talks about the integration of the monetary system between the countries have been going on for almost 30 years.
“State — owned enterprises that are in manual control mode dominate in Belarus,” Solodkov explained to MK. — The country’s economy itself is relatively small and can exist for many years due to the infusion of money into it from Russia and the EU. Now Europe has shown Minsk a “big barrel”, and the country’s problems related to the inefficiency of the economy fall on the Russian budget. Roughly speaking, this means that Russian pensioners will live even worse. I don’t see any concrete acquisitions for Russia from this.”