Perhaps diplomatic and economic measures will suffice
Lithuania’s ban on transit through its territory of a large range of goods from Russia to the Kaliningrad region will affect the supply of the grouping of troops in the region, as well as the Baltic Fleet. Alexey Leonkov, a military analyst and editor of the Arsenal of the Fatherland magazine, spoke about whether this could fundamentally affect the combat capability of the Baltic Fleet, as well as whether Russia is ready for a military response to Lithuania.
Photo: Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation
In his opinion, Lithuania’s ban on overland transit will not affect the supply of goods to the Baltic Fleet much in the near future.
– After all, they do not block the sea route along the Baltic, – says Leonkov. – And they are unlikely to take this step at all, since it would actually mean declaring war on Russia. The ban on supplies will have a greater impact on the development of the Kaliningrad region.
As for our possible military response, a number of factors should be taken into account. Our Foreign Ministry has already decisively told the representatives of Lithuania and the EU that they violate the agreements that we had when Russia recognized Lithuania as an independent state. Then we were promised unhindered transit to the Kaliningrad region.
According to the expert, a military response will be the last measure that Russia will be forced to use if diplomatic and economic levers do not work in relation to Lithuania.
– And we still have a lot of such economic levers in relation to Lithuania, – Leonkov clarifies. – Moreover, they should be applied not gradually, but immediately, so that this country would be shocked by our actions. If this does not help, then, of course, military measures will have to be applied, which will have to ensure unhindered passage to the Russian enclave.
Many believe that in this case, the 5th article of the NATO collective security treaty will have to work. It is interpreted as a mandatory entry into the war of the entire Alliance, if an attack is made on one or more NATO countries.
In fact, the wording of this article is not as unambiguous as it seems to many. It does not say about the automatic entry into the war of the entire NATO because of any country. Everything is stipulated by a number of conditions. And another big question is whether NATO countries are ready to get involved in a war with Russia for the interests of Lithuania, realizing that such a war is likely to lead to a conflict with the use of nuclear weapons.
Alexey Leonkov believes that in the current situation, Europe is not inclined to aggravate the situation. Moreover, Lithuania claims that it has coordinated its actions with the EU. But so far, Vilnius’ statements have not been officially confirmed and the steps have not been supported.
– I think, – says Leonkov, – that Lithuania, which staged this provocation on the initiative of the UK, will still back down after we use diplomatic and economic levers. But if they do not lead to a result, then here, as they say, if you do not want to talk to Lavrov, then you will have to deal with Shoigu. Ukraine has already understood this…
Secretary of the Russian Security Council Patrushev said at a meeting in Kaliningrad: Russia will definitely respond to Lithuania’s blocking of supplies to the Kaliningrad region. Measures will be taken. But, he noted, this step of Lithuania, made at the suggestion of the West, proves that one cannot trust not only its oral, but also written statements.